Decoding the 2025 Cycling Landscape: Insights & Q&A with SHIFT Active Media

On Thursday, February 13, Doug Baker, Shift Active Media’s Chief Strategy Officer, will host a webinar titled “What’s Next? 2025: A Data-Driven Look at Riders’ Appetite for Cycling in the Year Ahead.”

The agency will soon release its latest research enabling cycling brands to navigate 2025. Now in its third year, the latest instalment of the agency’s annual ‘What’s Next? report’ will provide a perspective on interest and near-term appetite for various parts of the industry.

Shift creates the report by combining proprietary research from the agency’s Rider Research Hub panel with search, industry, and wider economic data. 

We discussed the report with Doug to discover what’s changed since 2024 and what we might expect for the rest of the year. 

The release mentions signs of stability and green shoots. Can you elaborate on the specific data points that indicate these positive trends, and which segments of the cycling industry are showing the most promise for growth in 2025? Are there any specific product categories or rider demographics driving this growth?

After two years of disruption and declining sales, the 2024 data across participation, search interest and early retail data suggest that whilst not everything is positive, many sectors and markets are stabilising.

Our data suggests that upgrades (e.g. wheels) and categories connected to ongoing usage (e.g. tyres and servicing) are in a positive place. Whilst gravel continues to build interest in most sub-categories. The US looks quite positive, Germany has some positives, whilst France and the UK is a more challenged picture.

It’s likely that ongoing discounting has continued to support sales and search levels to an extent, so we shouldn’t get unreasonably optimistic. But barring any unforeseen impact from trade wars or conflict, the industry should be able to look forward to a less volatile and distressed environment.

You mention that signs of optimism are not evenly spread. Which regions or market segments are facing continued challenges, and what specific factors are contributing to these difficulties? Do you have any advice for the businesses operating in these challenging areas?

Overstocking continues to (mostly) ease but some areas are challenging from a long-term perspective. Lower-priced bikes targeting non-enthusiasts. And ‘acoustic’ MTBs continue the decline as both gravel and eMTB grow, although the rate of decline is steadying.

The 2024 report highlighted the resilience of gravel bikes, eMTBs, and premium products. Does the 2025 research confirm this trend? Are there any emerging product categories expected to gain traction in the coming year? Would you say consumer preferences are shifting?

Yes, gravel continues its steady growth across most measures. Premium products have been more resilient, although it’s been a story of stability rather than growth. eBikes continues to be a mixed picture by category and country, with the UK lagging, whilst interest in the US and Germany is healthier. It has also been an area with a higher number of companies facing significant challenges, as several invested ahead of demand in a competitive space and softening demand put them in very difficult financial situations.

In terms of emerging, it’s not a new area, but there appears to be growth in tech wearables, they seem to be doing well, as reflected in Garmin and UK retail numbers. Although this is obviously an area that overlaps with other endurance sports, so doesn’t sit entirely in cycling.

Does the 2025 research address the impact of inflation and economic uncertainty on consumer spending within the cycling industry? Are there specific price points or product types that are proving more resistant to economic pressures? Any advice on how brands can adjust their pricing and product strategies accordingly?

The report addresses the impact of economic uncertainty on broader consumer confidence and spending, with 2024 a particularly challenging year, and uncertainty remaining into early 2025 as the world waits to see the impact of new US trade policies on the wider world economy. Caution will likely guide most purchase decisions, as people prioritise those things that matter most to them or those things that can offer most value.

Beyond product categories, what are the key trends you’ve identified regarding rider behaviour and participation? Are there shifts in how people are engaging with cycling (e.g., commuting, leisure, competition)? How can businesses leverage these trends to connect with their target audiences effectively?

We’ve had anecdotal feedback from panel members about a desire to ride more and take part in events, but we haven’t focused on usage types in too much detail in this report.

You say the webinar combines proprietary research with search, industry, and wider economic data. Can you provide more detail on the methodology used in your Rider Research Hub panel? How large is the panel, and what are its demographic characteristics?

The Rider Research Hub is SHIFT Active Media’s proprietary online research community of over 12,500 enthusiast cyclists from 8 major markets across the world. This survey was completed between 16th December 2024 and 30th January 2025, with 1,079 members taking part. Roughly 30% of responses came from the UK, 30% from North America and 40% from Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain), with a mix of road, MTB, gravel and leisure riders taking part. 22% of respondents were women.

What are the most significant marketing challenges and opportunities that cycling brands will face in 2025? How should they adapt their marketing strategies to effectively reach and engage their target audiences in the evolving media landscape?

The Million £ / $ / € question!

There are certainly immediate, tactical opportunities to better use fast-evolving Media AI targeting, to optimise distribution strategies and design communications that actually stand out in a highly competitive and often very homogenous cycling market landscape.

But realistically it will always depend on the state of each brand and business as much as ‘best practice’ actions or the latest martech opportunities.

If your region or category is in growth, how do you use data to better understand, serve and reach the emerging audience? If you’re in a stable market, how do you compete? And if you’re still in a distressed market, how can you support sell-through, whilst sustaining enough brand equity to bounce back when the time comes?

What are the key takeaways from the What’s Next? report that you hope attendees will leave with? What concrete actions should they take based on the research findings to prepare their businesses for success for the rest of 2025?

As in my answer above, specific advice will depend on each brand or company’s needs.

But there are two concrete actions I’d advise…

1. Define where and how you compete

The reality is there are always more brands in each cycling category than the market objectively ‘needs’. It comes from a great place, people love all aspects of bikes and cycling so much they’ll often continue running a business even if in other categories the challenges would have seen that business close. But the upshot is that competition is always fierce. And yet so many companies spend a lot of time looking inward at their product, their team and their passion.

They don’t spend enough time competitively positioning themselves. How are you seen by your audience today v. competitors? Is your product truly different? Are your communications distinctive? Are they reaching enough riders compared to the competition? Too often it’s ‘we’ll be in every category and we’re passionate cyclists making great bikes’… so is everyone else.

Whilst we’re seeing some positives for 2025, it’s likely to be a landscape of stability and growth – where it happens – will be steady. It won’t be like the pandemic boom with a rising tide raising all ships. It will be competitive. The most competitively savvy businesses will take the majority of the market share.

2. Combine gut with data

For those businesses that have weathered the last two years, most should be in a position to get back on the front foot. Whilst there should always be room for passion and personal experience in cycling businesses, the pandemic has also taught us to augment this with data to guide and sense-check that gut instinct.

What do riders want? Are there signals of rising or falling demand? How do we stack up versus the competition? How is our activity performing in the market? Are we successfully building long-term?

Through a combination of research partners and taking advantage of the key membership organisations, bike brands need to build systems that will enable them to monitor their audience, their market and their performance and then use that to evolve their strategy from that understanding.

Ultimately more brands, competing more effectively, with better data should lead to better products, and brands delivering more entertaining content and engaging experiences to riders. Hopefully, the challenges we’ve all been through the last two years can help the industry come out smarter.

The webinar will be open to those working in the cycling industry, access will be limited to those who meet certain criteria. Email hello@shiftactivemedia.com if you are interested in joining.