Back in the Saddle? The British Bike Business in 2025

Steve Garidis, Executive Director of industry body the Bicycle Association, shares his perspective on the UK bike trade in 2025…

“Is the bike market rollercoaster we’ve all been on since Covid over?”  This question, or variations of it – and possibly one still requiring some group therapy for many of us in the cycle industry – is the one I get asked most often.  It’s not been far from mind at the UK’s Bicycle Association over the last five years, and it’s the question most asked at the networking sessions of our members’ events and gatherings. 

And no wonder many in the industry are hoping for some ‘normality’ given the tumultuous nature of the 2020s so far:  Heady market boom, the reality check of the ensuing global supply chain crunch, an ongoing cost-of-living crisis squeezing demand.  Longstanding industry business models have been sorely tested, major market consolidations are still to show their full effect, and there’s the (very human) impact of business closures, small and large.  Compounding all this have been macro trends well beyond the direct influence of the industry, the shifting politics and changing governments.  Navigating the rapidly shifting policy landscape and complex trade rules through Brexit or US tariff wars has not been for the faint-hearted.  And as if all this weren’t enough, we’re now tackling a major (potentially existential) anti-e-bike campaign driven by sensationalist mainstream media coverage of illegal electric motorcycle use.   

So, will 2025 be the year we’ll look back on as a turning point? And how does the UK cycle industry best position itself for the challenges and opportunities coming down the (cycle) path?

That’s the question we work very hard to answer at the BA.  As the UK cycle industry’s national trade body, our purpose is to support, champion and safeguard our sector.  Each of these requires us to understand the real pressures and opportunities of the present and take a medium to long-term view for the future.  Not easy in such a tumultuous period.  To do it requires access to industry-relevant data, careful analysis of the impact of policy and regulations, a clear view of where, as a membership association, we can uniquely and impactfully bring industry together to collaborate or unite around single clear messages, and often most tricky of all, the dark art of bringing to bear a unique and credible narrative and influencing government action.

Bicycle Association’s Market Data Service

On the data front, I’m very pleased to say the Association leads the way within the cycle industry globally, with an industry-owned, non-profit Market Data Service capturing retail sales data directly from tills of more than 70% of the UK market by value, from shops online and in the high street.  The Bicycle Association’s Market Data Service (fondly abbreviated to ‘MDS’) is truly an amazing and powerful tool for understanding what’s happening, in real time, across the UK market.  So much so that other markets beyond the UK are now working with us to extend the service there too, starting with Germany and Australia this year.  In the UK, our members have been able to use MDS for five years now to interrogate, on a monthly basis, how they are performing vs. the market in any segment or category they operate in, providing actionable insights from which they can make money.  For the Association itself, MDS underpins our conversations with officials and the cases we make to government to secure policies and greater investment for our sector.  It’s vital credible data in an era which requires robust evidence to effect change, and which I don’t think we can do without if we wish to thrive and compete with other modern industries. 

To sound an encouraging note, for the first time in four years, I’m looking at the monthly MDS data and feeling quietly, cautiously optimistic.  At the time of writing, MDS shows sales for each of the last three months are substantially up on the same period last year, suggesting the post-pandemic decline, ongoing since May 2021, may have finally turned a corner.  There are still worrying longer-term trends that sit in the background – a decline in children cycling and children’s cycle sales, a lack of real progress in bikes as transport, but slowly, surely, the leisure, sport and enthusiast side is returning.  And as an Association, we’re cautiously forecasting growth for 2025, albeit in single digits.  I guess we’re maybe still a year off really feeling like a recovery has kicked in, and a longer way off realising the nascent potential of ‘ordinary’ cycling – the ‘electric revolution’ seen on the Continent, or the even bigger potential still of cycling for transport. 

Team of Industry Experts

On the technical and policy front, we are lucky to have a team of subject experts trusted by our members, government officials and industry experts within the UK and internationally.  We’ve built strong credibility through longstanding connections with those developing industry standards whether in our members’ businesses or at European or global level, and we’ve built longstanding relationships with many relevant parts of government, whether DfT, DEFRA, DBT on the policy front or in adjacent business friendly departments like Innovate UK where relationships and reputation can help attract public innovation funding to our sector (a first for the UK cycle industry).  Our members have full access to this expertise and we provide support on all matters of standards and regulations whether compliance or international trade, but perhaps more importantly still this hard-won capability is one of the main ways we can influence government policy, by providing trusted, unbiassed expert advice, based on sound data and careful analysis, and backed (where needed publicly) by the relevant sectors of our membership. 

Impact on Government Policy

This long-term approach to influence is what, in my view, truly impacts government decision-making and the policy environment which determines how we all do business.  As an industry, campaigns come and go and play an important role in single issues or raising awareness, but long-term influence requires long-term investment, and should, in my view, be considered by all cycle businesses as a vital and necessary cost of doing business. Building influence doesn’t happen by accident – it’s not gifted to sectors just because they deserve it. It’s built deliberately, through unity, clear messaging, reliable evidence, and long, consistent engagement.  Other industries have been doing this to great effect for decades.  We have to do it too for ours, and to keep going! That’s where strong trade associations come into their own. 

By way of example, and undoubtedly the biggest threat to our sector right now is the risk of knee-jerk policy reaction to the illegal and substandard electric motorcycle products (I refuse to call them ‘e-bikes’) being confused by the media and politicians with the very safe and legal e-bikes sold by the reputable cycle industry.   The Association has been working on this behind the scenes for several years, building the evidence case for where the problems truly lie, working with the Office for Product Safety & Standards, DfT, DEFRA and others.  As an Association, our work has helped establish without question that the reputable industry’s products are safe and showed Government where regulation is required to tackle the real problem (primarily online marketplaces and delivery platforms, which need to take responsibility for the legality and safety of the products and services they offer).  Alongside pushing government to close down access to substandard and illegal products, we’re working with members and other industry partners on an industry-wide Assurance scheme which will help consumers identify safe e-bike products and reputable places to buy them. 

Market Predictions

So, to come back to the original question – ‘is the rollercoaster over’?  The answer is inevitably, ‘…probably not’.  There are always new challenges coming our way, but of course, this means there are also opportunities.  Things are looking up for our sector.  The market has turned a corner.  We’re still a fantastic, innovative, passionate bunch, and our industry has a great story – an economic punch well above our weight, and a social value from our impact on health and environment that makes us a ‘strategic industry’ for any government.  The trick is to position ourselves accordingly, and that requires us to invest in having the influence we need and deserve.    At the Bicycle Association, our mission is to give the UK cycle industry that influence. Not just for today’s market conditions, but to help shape the policies, regulations and public perceptions that will define our place for the long term. 

If you’re a business in the cycle industry and not already working with us, you should be! You’re missing out, and we could be stronger still with you onboard. Check out membership options on the Bicycle Association website.